A small firm cannot bid on everything. Every proposal takes nights and weekends away from paying work. The go/no-go decision is how you protect that time: a quick, honest check of whether this opportunity is worth it before you start writing. Bidding less often and more selectively usually beats submitting many generic proposals.
When to decide
Make a first call when you see a sources sought notice, presolicitation or draft RFP, and a firm decision within a day or two of the final solicitation's release. The longer you wait, the more time you have already spent, and the harder it becomes to say no.
The questions that matter
1. Are we eligible?
- Are we small under the solicitation's NAICS code and size standard?
- Do we hold the required set-aside status (8(a), HUBZone, SDVOSB, WOSB/EDWOSB)?
- Are we registered and active in SAM.gov?
- Do we meet mandatory minimums: licenses, certifications, clearances, bonding, insurance?
Any "no" here is usually a no-go, unless a teaming arrangement legitimately fixes it.
2. Can we do the work?
- Have we done substantially similar work, at a similar size?
- Do we have, or can we realistically hire, the people the work needs by the start date?
- Can we perform at the required location and scale?
- If it is a set-aside, can we meet the limitations on subcontracting?
3. Can we win?
- How is it evaluated — LPTA or best-value tradeoff? (See how to read a federal RFP.)
- Do we have relevant, recent past performance?
- Is there an incumbent? Are they performing well? Award notices and USAspending data can tell you who holds the current contract.
- Do we know the customer, or is this the first time we have heard of them?
- Can we be price-competitive while still covering our costs?
4. Do we want it?
- Is the contract profitable at a price that can win?
- Does it fit where we want the business to go, or does it pull us off course?
- Can we carry the cash flow? Federal payments arrive after invoices are approved; plan for the gap.
- What else will we not do because we are writing this proposal?
5. Can we write a compliant proposal in time?
- How many days until it is due, and how many hours do we really have?
- How long and complex are the instructions? Build a quick compliance matrix outline to size the effort.
- Do we need teaming partners, and can agreements be signed in time?
A simple scoring method
Turn the questions into a scorecard so decisions are consistent:
- Treat eligibility items as pass/fail gates. Any fail is a no-go.
- Score each remaining area (capability, win probability, value to the business, proposal feasibility) on a scale of 1 to 5.
- Agree a threshold in advance. Below it, pass. Near it, talk it through. Above it, commit fully.
- Write down the reason for the decision. After award announcements, compare: were your no-gos right? Were your gos realistic?
The exact weights matter less than using the same method every time and being honest about the answers.
Common traps
- "We could do that." Being able to do the work is necessary but not enough. The question is whether you can win against the likely competitors.
- Chasing large contracts too early. Big awards attract experienced competitors. Smaller awards, simplified acquisitions and subcontracts build the record you need for bigger ones.
- Ignoring the incumbent. A well-performing incumbent is hard to unseat. A struggling one may be an opening.
- Sunk-cost bidding. Hours already spent are not a reason to keep going.
Who should be in the room
In a small firm the go/no-go meeting might be two people at a kitchen table, and that is fine. What matters is that someone who knows the operations side (can we staff and deliver this?) and someone who knows the money side (can we price it and carry it?) both weigh in, and that the person who wants the contract most is not the only voice. Keep the meeting short, use the scorecard, and decide.
When "no-go" is still useful
Passing does not mean ignoring. You can still ask questions, attend industry days, respond to related sources sought notices, or approach likely primes about subcontracting. That builds relationships for the next opportunity.
Use public data before you decide
A few minutes of research can sharpen your answers. On USAspending.gov or PinPeek's NAICS and agency pages, check how much the buying agency spends in your industry, what share goes to small businesses, and who has won similar awards recently. On SAM.gov, look up earlier notices for the same requirement and any award notice naming the incumbent. These facts will not make the decision for you, but they replace guesses with evidence.
Frequently asked questions
How many bids should a small business submit?
There is no right number. Focus on opportunities that pass your go/no-go threshold. A few well-targeted proposals usually beat many generic ones.
Should I bid on a contract with an incumbent?
It depends on how well the incumbent is performing and whether you can offer a clear advantage. Research the current contract's history and talk to the customer if you can, within the rules for communication during a procurement.
What is a bid/no-bid decision?
Another name for a go/no-go decision: the choice of whether to pursue a specific opportunity.
Can PinPeek make the go/no-go decision for me?
PinPeek can summarize a solicitation and score how well it appears to fit your profile, but the decision is yours. Use the score as an input alongside your own knowledge of the customer and your capacity.
This guide is general information, not legal advice. Rules change — always check the solicitation and the official sources linked here.